Bitcoin’s price is poised for an upcoming rally this year, and the best scenario can take the asset to above $100,000 for the first time ever, said the CEO of CryptoQuant – Ki Young Ju.
To do so, though, certain developments have to transpire, which are mostly related to the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
ETFs Behind BTC’s Upcoming Rally?
Ever since the entire crypto community and a bigger part of the traditional financial world started realizing that the SEC will inevitably approve spot Bitcoin ETFs sooner rather than later, experts speculated on whether these developments will be a sell-the-news event. That turned out to be true as BTC slumped by over ten grand in the first two weeks of ETF trading in January.
While there were debates on the immediate consequences of BTC’s price, most were quite bullish on the long-term effects. CryptoQuant’s CEO also seems determined that the cryptocurrency’s price will rise this year, mainly driven by the inflows in the ETFs.
With a month already gone after the ETFs went live, Young Ju asserted that BTC’s market has seen “$9.5 billion in spot ETF inflows per month,” which could boost its realized cap by $114 billion yearly.
This could have a massive positive impact on BTC’s price, pushing it to $112,000 this year in the best-case scenario or $55,000 in the worst. According to CryptoQuant’s CEO, even the growing GBTC outflows won’t have such a substantial negative effect:
“Even with $GBTC outflows, a $76B rise could elevate the realized cap from $451B to $527-565B.”
$100K to Be Broken?
Those who were following the developments in the crypto market in 2021 probably remember the laser eyes, which became viral among BTC proponents. As the asset had soared past $50,000 and $60,000, the laser eyes remained as X (then-Twitter) profile pictures as they displayed the community’s faith that Bitcoin will eventually crack $100,000.
That never happened back then. Just the opposite, as the cryptocurrency slumped in the next few years. However, Young Ju believes the ETF inflow trend could propel the next massive bull run that might result in breaking above that level for the first time.
He also attributed the overall bullish sentiment in the community to the MVRV, according to which market bottoms are at 0.75, while tops come at 3.9. Currently, the metric stands at 2.07, which would mean a worst-case price point for BTC at close to $60,000 if there’s no hype in the following months.
Given the historical price performance of BTC around and after halvings, though, this seems rather unlikely, as retail investors tend to follow the trends. And, the fourth halving is just a couple of months away, and speculations are already running rampant on how it will impact BTC’s price.
Historically, $BTC market bottoms occur at an MVRV of 0.75 and tops at 3.9.
With current spot ETF inflow trends, the top price could reach $104k-$112k.
Without hype, maintaining the current level of 2.07, the price would be $55-59k. pic.twitter.com/RqphTGYroX
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 11, 2024